The game is a variation of poker played on a blackjack-sized table.
Players place a wager, called the ante.
Each player and the dealer is dealt their own five card hand. One of the dealer's cards is face up the other four are face down.
Players decide to stay in or fold. If you fold you forfeit your ante. If you stay in you must add to your bet to double the ante.
Assuming at least one player stays in the game, the dealer's hand is turned face up. If the dealer does not have at least an ace/king then the player automatically wins even money on the ante and the additional wager is returned. If the dealer does have at least ace/king high then the dealer's hand "qualifies." If the player has the higher hand the player wins even money on the ante, and the additional wager pays according to the payoff table below. If the dealer's hand beats the player's hand he loses both the ante and raise.
Hand
Payoff
Probability
Royal flush
100 to 1
0.0000015
Straight flush
50 to 1
0.0000139
Four of a kind
20 to 1
0.0002401
Full house
7 to 1
0.0014406
Flush
5 to 1
0.0019654
Straight
4 to 1
0.0039246
Three of a kind
3 to 1
0.0211285
Two pair
2 to 1
0.0475390
Pair
1 to 1
0.4225690
Ace/King
1 to 1
0.0643642
Strategy
You should stay in (raise) if you have a pair or better. You should also sometimes raise on ace/king. Here are a few rules of thumb for when to raise on ace/king that will fit almost every situation correctly:
If the dealer's card is a 2 through Jack and matches one of yours.
If the dealer's card is an ace or king and you have a queen or jack in your hand.
If the dealer's card does not match any of yours and you have a queen in your hand and the dealer's card is less than your fourth highest card.
In my Caribbean Stud Appendix I have a color coded chart that shows exactly when to raise on ace/king, given every combination of the ranks of the player's cards, the dealer's up card rank, and how many of the player's cards match the suit of the dealer's up card. By studying the patterns in the chart you will see that the three rules above are correct for almost every situation. A lot of books advise that you should always raise on ace/king if you have a queen in your hand, the appendix will show this is not a good play if the dealer's card does not match any of the player's cards and is greater than the player's fourth highest card.
House Edge in poker
The house edge is 5.22% by following a strategy of raising on any
pair or greater and on ace/king according to the three rules above.
It should be noted that the ratio of average money lost by the player
to total money bet is 3.22%.
Poker statistics
The following tables shows the various possible outcomes in Caribbean
stud poker, their net return per initial bet, their probability,
and their total return (product of probability and net return).
Statistics for Caribbean Stud Poker
Event/winning hand
Net return
Probability
Total return
Player folds
-1
0.44733596
-0.44733596
Dealer doesn't qualify
1
0.24195416
0.24195416
Dealer beats player
-3
0.15219791
-0.45659373
Tie
0
0.00001665
0.00000000
Ace/king
3
0.00137471
0.00412413
Pair
3
0.11661806
0.34985418
Two pair
5
0.02447324
0.12236620
Three of a kind
7
0.01175271
0.08226897
Straight
9
0.00219504
0.01975536
Flush
11
0.00109448
0.01203928
Full House
15
0.00083564
0.0125346
Four of a kind
41
0.00014281
0.00585521
Straight flush
101
0.00000785
0.00079285
Royal flush
201
0.00000081
0.00016281
Total
1.00000000
-0.052221935
Raising on Ace-King-Jack-8-3 or Better
Many "gaming experts" incorrectly advise that A-K-J-8-3 is the borderline hand for raising on an ace/king. The advice they give is to raise with this hand or better and fold with less, ignoring the dealer's up card. It is simply foolish to ignore the dealer's up card. If you had this hand and the dealer had a queen showing your expected loss would be 1.17108 units, which is much worse than than losing 1 unit by folding.
Playing Blind
I have been asked a few times about 'playing blind' or always raising regardless of what your hand is. This is a very foolish strategy when you have a nonqualifying hand! The dealer will qualify 56.3% of the time, thus the expected return by raising when you have nothing is .563*(-3) + .437*(+1) = -1.252 which is much less than the -1 you would have by folding.
